The United Nations' conditional consideration to remove Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from its list of terrorist organizations signals a complex but critical shift in addressing the future of Syria. While this proposal carries significant risks, it also presents a rare opportunity for fostering stability in a nation ravaged by over a decade of civil war.
Why This Matters
Syria stands at a pivotal juncture after the collapse of the Assad regime. The role of HTS, once rooted in extremism as the al-Nusra Front, now evolves as it positions itself as a unifying force in Syria's fragmented political landscape. The UN's willingness to engage with HTS under strict conditions reflects a pragmatic approach: addressing the reality on the ground rather than clinging to inflexible designations.
This decision could have profound implications for Syria's transition. On one hand, removing HTS from the terror list could legitimize its role in a transitional government and encourage cooperation among disparate factions. On the other, it risks emboldening a group with a controversial past, raising concerns about its long-term intentions.
HTS and the Idlib Question
The UN's insistence that Syria cannot be governed like Idlib is a direct critique of HTS's governance model in the province. Idlib under HTS has been characterized by authoritarian rule, suppression of dissent, and strict Islamist policies. For Syria to rebuild, it requires inclusive governance that represents all communities—Kurds, Christians, Alawites, Sunnis, and others. HTS’s willingness to dismantle its structure and reform as a group opposed to international terrorism is a promising sign, but skepticism remains warranted.
The precedent set by Idlib highlights the challenges of reconciling ideological governance with democratic aspirations. For HTS to transition from a militant organization to a legitimate political entity, it must demonstrate transparency, inclusivity, and respect for human rights—qualities absent in its prior rule.
The Role of Israel and Regional Stability
The UN envoy's call for Israel to cease its attacks in Syria underscores the precarious balance of power in the region. Israel’s actions in the Golan Heights not only violate the 1974 disengagement agreement but also risk derailing fragile efforts toward peace. Continued aggression could alienate newly formed factions in Syria and further entrench hostility toward Israel.
Regional actors must prioritize de-escalation and dialogue. A coordinated effort to stabilize Syria, involving neighboring states like Turkey and Jordan, is crucial to preventing the emergence of new extremist groups or the fragmentation of the nation.
The Path Forward: Opportunities and Risks
The UN’s emphasis on a cohesive and inclusive transitional government is well-placed but fraught with challenges. Several steps are critical to ensuring a successful transition:
Accountability and Oversight: The UN must establish clear benchmarks for HTS to meet before delisting, including disbanding extremist elements and integrating into a democratic framework.
Broad Representation: Any transitional government must include all segments of Syrian society, ensuring that minority groups have a voice and are protected from marginalization.
International Support: The international community must offer robust support for rebuilding Syria’s infrastructure, economy, and institutions. This includes humanitarian aid and investment in education and healthcare.
Regional Cooperation: Countries with vested interests in Syria must align their goals toward stability rather than advancing individual agendas. A unified approach is essential to prevent further fragmentation.
Monitoring and Enforcement: The UN and other international bodies must closely monitor HTS’s actions to ensure it upholds its commitments. Failure to comply should trigger swift consequences.
A Fragile Opportunity
The UN’s willingness to consider removing HTS from the terror list represents a calculated risk. Success hinges on HTS’s ability to transition from a militant group to a political actor committed to unity and inclusivity. While initial signs are promising, the international community must remain vigilant and proactive in guiding Syria’s fragile transition.
Ultimately, this moment represents an opportunity for Syria to move away from its bloody past and toward a more stable future. The stakes are high, but with careful management, the benefits could extend far beyond Syria, offering a glimmer of hope for a region long plagued by conflict.